Daily Market Outlook, April 15, 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute..
Asian markets advanced, spearheaded by Japan, as US President Donald Trump suggested a possible halt in auto tariffs, offering additional comfort to the market following the suspension of tariffs on certain consumer electronics. Japanese indexes surged more than 1%, with firms like Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. seeing significant gains. Shares in China and Hong Kong displayed volatility while futures contracts for both the US and Europe reduced earlier losses. The pharmaceutical industry appears to be the next target of Trump's tariffs, which could negatively impact European drug companies such as Novo Nordisk, known for their successful weight-loss medications recently. The ongoing discussions about tariffs have diminished the perceived stability of the U.S. dollar and Treasuries. The dollar remained near a three-year low compared to the euro and a six-month low against the yen during trading in Asia. Meanwhile, gold, considered the ultimate safe haven asset, saw a slight increase as it approached the record level it reached on Monday. Markets are stabilising as the exemptions have sparked optimism for potential negotiations after the president’s reciprocal tariffs this month resulted in a $10 trillion loss in global equities and triggered a decline in Treasuries. Nevertheless, the inconsistencies are leaving investors anxious, and business leaders, including JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Jamie Dimon, have cautioned that Trump's attempts to alter the global trading framework might drive the US towards a recession.
Average weekly earnings in the UK, excluding bonuses, rose by 5.9% in the three months leading up to February compared to the same period a year earlier, as reported by the Office for National Statistics this morning. Economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted a 6.0% increase. The Bank of England is evaluating whether inflationary pressures in the labour market are easing sufficiently to allow further interest rate cuts. It is also observing the economic impacts of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs.
On the macro slate today investors will be watching Q1 earnings announcements from J&J, Bank of America, United Airlines, and Citigroup. U.S. import prices for March are projected to remain unchanged after a 0.4% increase in February. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin will speak at the University of North Carolina, while Fed Governor Lisa Cook will deliver a speech in Washington DC. Canada's inflation report for March is anticipated to remain steady at 2.6%, unchanged from the previous month.
Overnight Newswire Updates of Note
Fed’s Bostic Emphasizes Patience, Says Not A Time To Move Boldly
FMR Trsy Sec Yellen: Trump Policies Eroding Trust In US, Dollar Assets
Trsy Sec Bessent: Treasury Has Big Toolkit If Needed For Bond Market
Treasury Term Premium Jumps to Decade High on Policy Uncertainty
Netflix Aims $1T Club, Plans To Double Ad Rev, Tripple Oper Income
S&P's 'Death Cross' May Not Be As Ominous As It Sounds, Analysts Say
Trump’s Tariff Rationale Challenged In Suit By Small Companies
UK Plan Consumers To ‘Buy British’ AsTrade War Bites, Survey Shows
EU Explores Legal Options For Ending Russian Gas Deals
LVMH Misses Sales Forecast As Core Business Slumps In First Quarter
Tariffs Drag AMRO Asia Growth Outlook To Weakest Since Covid
China’s Economy Likely Grew 5.2% In Months Before Big US Tariffs
UBS Lowers China's 2025 GDP Growth Projection To 3.4%
Japan’s Kato Denies Extra Budget Plan Amid Bond Yield Surge
Japan Super-Long Yield Premium At Widest Since 2002 Amid Tariffs
TSMC Moves Closer To Next-Gen Packaging For Nvidia, Google AI Chips
(Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.0800 (EU1.56b), 1.1250 (EU1.4b), 1.0870 (EU1.29b)
USD/CAD: 1.4375 ($1.52b), 1.4650 ($973.2m), 1.4280 ($452.6m)
USD/JPY: 145.00 ($1.97b), 144.00 ($1.68b), 151.00 ($1.17b)
AUD/USD: 0.6200 (AUD1.39b), 0.6300 (AUD462.3m), 0.6150 (AUD439.6m)
USD/CNY: 7.3600 ($606.9m), 7.2700 ($426.3m)
GBP/USD: 1.2100 (GBP720m), 1.2600 (GBP603.2m)
EUR/GBP: 0.8620 (EU692.1m)
USD/MXN: 20.10 ($408.9m), 20.00 ($355m), 19.30 ($348m)
USD/BRL: 5.4450 ($324.6m), 5.8980 ($317.9m)
CFTC Data As Of 11/4/25
S&P 500 CME net long position was reduced by 75,583 contracts by equity fund managers to 803,250, while S&P 500 CME net short position was increased by 22,408 contracts to 287,605 by equity fund speculators.
CBOT Speculators reduce their net short position in US Treasury bond futures by 14,494 contracts to 18,154. CBOT Speculators reduce their net short position in US Ultrabond Treasury futures by 53,719 contracts to 200,310. CBOT Speculators reduce their net short position in US 2-year Treasury futures by 28,282 contracts to 1,198,109 CBOT Speculators' net short position in US 5-year Treasury futures increased by 102 contracts to 2,021,575 Japanese yen net long position is 147,067 contracts, while CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position is 215,207 contracts to 1,078,470.
17,310 contracts make up the British pound net long position.
There are 59,980 contracts in the Euro net long position.
The net short position of the Swiss franc is -30,277 contracts.
1,332 contracts make up the Bitcoin net long position.
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Pivot 5610
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Seasonality suggests bullishness into late April
Above 5665 target 5792
Below 5000 target 4755
EURUSD Pivot 1.11
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Seasonality suggests bearishness into the end of April
Above 1.12 target 1.15
Below 1.1070 target 1.0945
GBPUSD Pivot 1.28
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Seasonality suggests bullishness into late April
Above 1.2850 target 1.32
Below 1.2790 target 1.2660
USDJPY Pivot 147.70
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Seasonality suggests bearishness into early May
Above 1.52 target 153.80
Below 146.53 target 140
XAUUSD Pivot 3100
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Seasonality suggests bearishness into mid/late April
Above 2900 target 3280
Below 2880 target 2835
BTCUSD Pivot 90k
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Seasonality suggests bullishness into mid April
Above 97k target 105k
Below 95k target 65k
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!