Daily Market Outlook, September 8, 2025 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

The Yen dropped sharply and Japanese markets gained after PM Ishiba announced his resignation. Asian markets increased as traders were more confident about potential Fed rate cuts. Japan’s currency declined by 0.5% against the Dollar amid fears that political instability could hamper the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates. The weaker Yen and the prospect of increased government assistance led to a rise in Japanese stock prices. Ishiba’s resignation, which was announced over the weekend, followed his Liberal Democratic Party’s loss of majorities in both legislative houses during recent elections. His exit raises worries among investors as they await the appointment of a new leader in the forthcoming weeks. On the other hand, European market futures edged upwards, while French government bond futures stayed the same ahead of Monday's confidence vote in Parliament, where Bayrou is anticipated to lose his position as Prime Minister. In the commodities sector, oil prices increased after OPEC+ came to an agreement on Sunday to gradually boost output next month. Crude futures had declined last week due to expectations of a looming rise in production. Gold prices approached the record high reached on Friday.

Non-farm payrolls continued their downward trajectory in August, with a modest gain of 22k—well below the 75k median forecast—following July’s disappointing figures. Mild downward revisions to the previous two months (net -21k) kept the three-month average stagnant at just 22k. Federal payrolls declined by another 15k month-over-month, now standing 97k below their January peak. Meanwhile, private payrolls saw a weaker-than-expected increase of 38k (median estimate: 75k), signalling broader hiring challenges across the economy.  Job losses were evident in six of the ten reported sectors, leaving education and health (+46k), leisure and hospitality (+28k), and other services (+12k) as the only areas of growth. Year-to-date payroll performance paints a fragile picture: of the 590k jobs added since January, a staggering 521k originated from education and health. This narrow concentration of job creation suggests that a single sector is propping up the labour market. When excluding the persistent demand for health workers—driven by an ageing population—the broader labour market appears stagnant.  The situation becomes even more concerning when analysed through the lens of wage rates, which highlight deeper vulnerabilities. With annual benchmark payroll revisions expected next week—and the anticipated bias skewing lower—the outlook for the labour market seems increasingly precarious.

The week ahead is set to be eventful for markets, starting with Monday’s confidence vote in the French government. Adding to the focus on France, Fitch is scheduled to review the French sovereign rating on Friday. Midweek, EU President Von der Leyen’s State of the Union address on Wednesday may touch on political and market implications, which could become a topic during Thursday’s press conference following the ECB Governing Council meeting. While no policy rate changes are anticipated, revisions to staff macroeconomic projections are expected to be limited. Key indicators from member states will also be released, including German trade and industrial production data on Monday, alongside various final August CPI figures on Friday. In the US, attention will centre on inflation data, with PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday, following Tuesday’s annual benchmark revisions to payroll employment. These updates could solidify expectations for the beginning of a Fed easing cycle. Meanwhile, in the UK, July’s monthly GDP estimate on Friday will offer insight into Q3 performance relative to the Bank of England’s forecast of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth.

Overnight Headlines

  • Japan PM Ishiba To Step Down, Markets React Sharply

  • OPEC+ Agrees To October Output Boost In Bid To Regain Market Share

  • Trump Issues ‘Last Warning’ To Hamas; Netanyahu Vows Swift Victory

  • Putin’s Biggest Drone Strike Hits Ukraine Government HQ

  • Fed Chair Finalist Hassett Backs Criticism Of Fed’s Expanding Role

  • Trump Family Adds $1.3B In Crypto Wealth Amid Token Rally

  • ASML Becomes Largest Shareholder In Mistral AI

  • OpenAI Backs Fully AI-Made Animated Feature Film

  • China To Reopen Bond Market To Russian Energy Firms

  • UK Unveils £250M Defence Industrial Strategy, Eyes Long-Term Gains

  • Japan GDP Revised Up To 2.2% On Stronger Spending

  • Mercedes Unveils Electric SUV, Reaffirms Value Strategy In China

  • Amazon To Limit Free Shipping Sharing, Affecting Millions

  • Coca-Cola Loses Market Share In Turkey Amid Boycott Shift

  • PBoC Injects Liquidity, Fixes Yuan Slightly Stronger

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.1650 (437M), 1.1675-80 (626M), 1.1700 (2.3BLN)

  • 1.1725-30 (512M), 1.1750 (2.3BLN), 1.1800 (1.5BLN)

  • USD/CHF: 0.7980-90 (450M). EUR/SEK: 10.95 (300M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.3500 (790M), 1.3520 (401M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6515-25 (936M), 0.6570-75 (476M), 0.6595-0.6600 (464M)

  • NZD/USD: 0.5935 (410M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.3700 (390M), 1.3850 (201M), 1.4000 (664M)

  • USD/JPY: 147.75 (680M), 148.00 (541M), 148.25-30 (510M), 148.45-50 (1BLN)

  • 148.75 (570M), 149.00 (1.5BLN), 149.25-30 (540M)

  • EUR/JPY: 173.50 (200M), 175.00 (460M). AUD/JPY: 97.00 (753M)

CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 5/9/25 

  • Equity fund speculators have reduced their net short position in the S&P 500 CME by 52,369 contracts, bringing the total to 375,892 contracts. Equity fund managers have also decreased their net long position in the S&P 500 CME by 16,318 contracts, now totaling 851,040 contracts. 

  • Speculators have increased their net short position in CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures by 218,016 contracts, reaching 2,681,987 contracts. Net short positions in CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures have been trimmed by 15,471 contracts to a total of 868,358. Additionally, net short positions in CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures have increased by 33,001 contracts, leading to a total of 1,296,083 contracts. The net short position in CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures has also risen by 14,274 contracts to 263,219. Speculators have upped their net short position in CBOT US Treasury bonds futures by 41,255 contracts, resulting in 77,268 contracts. 

  • In the cryptocurrency realm, the net short position in Bitcoin stands at -902 contracts. The Swiss franc shows a net short position of -25,888 contracts, while the British pound reports a net short position of -33,140 contracts. On the other hand, the Euro has a net long position of 119,592 contracts and the Japanese yen shows a net long position of 73,258 contracts.

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 6440 Target 6600

  • Below 6420 Target 6370

EURUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Below 1.1750 Target 1.15

  • Above 1.18 Target 1.1910

GBPUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish 

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Below 1.36 Target 1.30

  • Above 1.3650 Target 1.3850

USDJPY 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish 

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Below 1.49 Target 1.45

  • Above 1.51 Target 1.54

XAUUSD

  • Daily VWAP Bullish 

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 3500 Target 3700

  • Below 3400 Target 3300

BTCUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish 

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 110k Target 118k

  • Below 109k Target 105k