Tariff Impact
Following a correction lower from last week’s highs and some consolidation through the early part of this week, gold prices are now turning higher again. The move comes amidst an uptick in safe-haven demand in response to an escalation in tariff risks this week. Trump has announced a slew of measures including a 25% tariff on any countries buying Venezuelan oil, an across-the-board 25% tariff on all US autos imports/. Additionally, Trump has signalled that copper tariffs, originally thought to come in later this year, will now come in within weeks. These moves come ahead of the April 2nd deadline on which Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs against US trading partners.
Safe-Haven Demand
With the global trade environment turning more hostile, gold prices look poised to continue higher near-term with safe-haven demand expected to remain a driving force. The US Dollar has been mildly higher this week though it seems the reaction to fresh tariff announcements has not been a straight forward bullish catalyst for USD with traders concerned over US growth prospects given the risk that US trading partners announce countermeasures.
US Data & Fed Comments
Looking ahead, traders will be watching incoming US data today and tomorrow. Today, final USD GDP, weekly jobless claims and pending home sales will be on watch, alongside comments from Fed's Barkin. Tomorrow sees the headline core PCE print for last month along with comments from Fed’s Barr and Bostic.
Technical Views
Gold
Gold prices are now once again testing the 3,039.97 level where price stalled last week. If we break higher here, focus will be on the 3,200 level next which marks the 2.618% Fib extension level. Near-term, the bullish outlook remains while price holds above 2,949.88. Notably, we have a buy limit in the Signal Centre today at 3023.10 suggesting a preference to stay long into any dips from current levels.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.