Institutional Insights: Goldman Sachs SP500 Positioning & Key Levels
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Institutional Insights: Goldman Sachs SP500 Positioning & Key Levels
SP500 Positioning metrics & key levels according to Goldman Sachs
Summary:
1. CTA Corner: We have CTAs modelled long $130bn of global equities
(84th %tile) after selling $19bn of equities last week globally (link).
2. GS PB: The GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate fell -
0.67% between 7/19 and 7/25 (vs MSCI World TR -2.47%), driven
entirely by beta of - 1.29%, as alpha finished positive (+0.62%) on the
back of long side gains. The GS Equity Systematic L/S Performance
Estimate rose +1.25% during the same period, driven by alpha of
+1.10% from long side gains and beta of +0.14% (link).
3. Buybacks: We estimate this open window will run through 9/6. At the
moment, we see ~50% of corporates in open window with ~66% in
open window by the end of the week
CTA Corner
CTA Flows:
• Over the next 1 week…
o Flat tape: -$23bn to sell (-$9bn SPX to sell)
o Up tape: -$11bn to sell (-$5bn SPX to sell)
o Down tape: -$51bn to sell (-$13bn SPX to sell)
• Over the next 1 month…
o Flat tape: -$25bn to sell (-$12bn SPX to sell)
o Up tape: +$49bn to buy (+$3bn SPX to buy)
o Down tape: -$225bn to sell (-$64bn SPX to sell)
• Key pivot levels for SPX:
o Short term: 5475
o Med term: 5232
o Long term: 4818
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!