SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 22/10/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6685/75
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6838 SUP 6566
OCT EOM STRADDLE 6602/6891
NOV MOPEX 6891/6399
DEC QOPEX 6303/7025
DAILY ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER 6759
WEEKLY MARKET BALANCE - 6591/6809
MONTHLY ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER 6371
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6759/79
DAILY RANGE RES 6830 SUP 6716
2 SIGMA RES 6889 SUP 6658
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 18
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY/WEEKLY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY/WEEKLY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES COLOUR: PUZZLING
S&P closed unchanged at 6,735 with an insignificant MOC of -$100m for sale. NDX down 6bps at 25,127, R2K down 49bps at 2,487, and Dow up 47bps at 46,924. Total trading volume reached 20 billion shares across all US equity exchanges, exceeding the YTD daily average of 17.2 billion shares. VIX dropped 197bps to 17.87, WTI Crude rose 52bps to $57.82, US 10YR yield down 2bps to 3.96%, gold fell 511bps to 4,136, DXY declined 39bps to 98.97, and Bitcoin gained 80bps to $112k.
The S&P remained flat, but the day was heavily driven by positioning dynamics, with notable volatility beneath the surface. Long Momentum names faced significant pressure (GS Mo Pair -5%, Mo Long -3%, Mo Short +2%). Gold experienced a sharp sell-off exceeding 5%, marking a multi-sigma event resembling meme stock behavior. Bitcoin-exposed equities dropped 5%, while Bitcoin itself rose 1%. GOOGL fell 2.5% amid speculation about OpenAI’s agentic browser launch, contrasted by AMZN’s 2.5% increase. BYND surged 150%, trading 1.8 billion shares, CRM gained 4%, while ORCL rose 1%.
AFTER HOURS: NFLX dropped 6% following mixed results—Q3 revenues beat expectations, but EPS missed, and Q4 guidance showed higher revenues but weaker operating income. TXN fell 4% after guiding below street expectations, with revenues projected down ~7% q/q at the midpoint. DKNG rose 6%, announcing the acquisition of predictions platform Railbird, licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, to enhance DraftKings Predictions mobile platform. ISRG soared 17% on top- and bottom-line beats, with accelerated procedure volume growth both domestically and internationally. COF climbed 4%, delivering strong results driven by a large reserve release and beats on net charge-offs and provisions, aligning with positive expectations within the financials community.
Activity levels were moderate, rated 5/10 overall. The floor finished -367bps for sale against a 30-day average of +72bps. LOs were flat as discretionary supply balanced macro and tech demand. HFs ended as net buyers, up $500m, driven by scattered covers across discretionary, industrials, and macro. Key themes included:
1) Alternatives (+135bps): Desk activity remains robust, skewing towards buying for LOs and, to a lesser extent, HFs. Tactical rotation out of money center stocks by LOs appears to be driving the move, with HF covering ahead of BX earnings Thursday morning. The stretched Long Moneycenters vs. Short Alts pair entered today with its fourth consecutive 14-day RSI reading above 70.
2) Autos: Increased interest in CVNA and auto names due to consumer credit concerns. GM provided reassuring commentary: "Portfolio performance has shown consumer resilience. Credit performance aligns with expectations given our predominantly prime credit mix. Even in subprime, which is a small portion of our portfolio, performance has been consistent."
DERIVATIVES: Volatility continues to decline ahead of tomorrow’s VIX expiry. Precious metal market turbulence has had minimal impact on SPX and SPX volatility. The desk favors short vol strategies in the 1-3 month space to capitalize on further curve steepening. Despite muted realized volatility today, a one-day straddle is projected to close below 40bps in the SPX. While flows remain subdued, there has been increased hedging and modest vol buying compared to yesterday’s long vol capitulation.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!