Daily Market Outlook, August 24, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Missive – Asia Tech Slumps As Tariff Wars And Yield Realities Bite

Global equities have started the week on the back foot as investors trim risk exposure ahead of pivotal megacap earnings and the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole gathering. Treasuries found some respite alongside a pull-back in crude prices, but broader market sentiment remains inherently cautious. The ongoing squeeze on AI-linked growth trades, along with trade friction in North America and escalating geopolitical headlines, continues to leave investors cautious.

Asian equity indices led the downside, with MSCI’s Asia Pacific index down nearly 1%, weighed down by high-profile corporate announcements in South Korea and Hong Kong. Samsung Electronics slumped 8.7% after its 110 trillion won ($80B) capital return plan failed to impress the street, while Alibaba fell 9.8% following the launch of a HK$80 billion ($10.2B) equity capital raise. Tokyo was not immune, with SoftBank shedding 4.6% after announcing a record 1 trillion yen retail bond issuance. Futures across Europe and Wall Street point to a subdued opening, reflecting a hesitant backdrop across developed markets.

Cross-asset flows offered mixed signals. Treasuries staged a mild relief rally, taking 10-year yields down 2 bps to 4.71% as investors digested the details of Treasury Secretary Bessent’s fiscal consolidation roadmap. Energy provided further support for fixed income, with Brent crude dropping 1.3% to around $93.15/bbl. In FX, the Canadian dollar came under notable pressure after Washington slapped 50% tariffs on approximately $20 billion of Canadian imports following a breakdown in trade negotiations late Friday. Ottawa has already pledged dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs starting September 8, threatening a fresh round of cross-border trade friction. Meanwhile, Gold continued to push higher toward $4,640/oz, maintaining steady safe-haven bid tone near three-month highs.

Last week’s global PMI data painted a resilient picture of economic activity, albeit with familiar undercurrents. While European activity showed localized regional divergence—weather disruptions weighed on French services while German manufacturing remained sluggish—the broader Eurozone services sector expanded steadily alongside a firming manufacturing base. In the UK, services printed a six-month high on domestic demand, offsetting minor hiring contractions. US composite surveys revealed a familiar split: cooling manufacturing due to supply chain constraints, contrasted against accelerating service-sector momentum and active hiring. Crucially, input price pressures remain elevated across regions relative to pre-Iran conflict levels, meaning central banks cannot yet declare victory over inflation despite recent energy relief.

Looking at the calendar, central bank watchers will lock their attention on the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium (Thu-Sat). With this year's official agenda focused on financial innovation, stablecoins, and payments policy, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to avoid leaning heavily into explicit forward guidance, keeping the monetary path strictly data-dependent. High-impact US data will set the near-term yield direction, led by July PCE inflation (Wed) and the preliminary annual benchmark payroll revisions (Fri). Overseas, light European data releases—such as German Ifo/GfK surveys and regional August CPI prints out of France and Spain—will offer secondary guidance for the ECB.

Macro to Micro: the broader risk environment is caught in a holding pattern. High-valuation tech is being tested by corporate actions and supply concerns, while long-end sovereign yields remain structurally sensitive to fiscal supply and sticky underlying inflation. While easing crude prices provide a temporary buffer, trade spats and incoming inflation data leave little room for complacency. For traders, the immediate objective is to manage position exposure into Jackson Hole while gauging whether this equity weakness marks a temporary liquidity pause or a deeper positioning reset.

Overnight Headlines

  • Canada Sees Long Trade War With US That May Last Beyond Midterms

  • US Vows ‘Economic D-Day’ As Iran Threatens To Halt All Oil Exports

  • China ‘Actively Committed’ To Iran Talks With Tensions Rising

  • China’s $119B Answer To Sagging Investment Is Coming Late

  • BoJ Set To Offer Clues As Markets Bet Heavily On September Hike

  • Traders Are Bracing For An Increasingly Hawkish ECB

  • UK PM Burnham Enters World Stage With Debut Foreign Trip To Ukraine

  • UK Productivity Showing Sustained Improvement, Economists Say

  • US Long Bonds Risk Deeper Selloff Without Clear Warsh Guidance

  • Gold Holds Near Three-Month High As Debasement Trade Returns

  • Saudi Oil Logistics Roiled Again By Houthis’ Red Sea Threat

  • Shell Draws Exxon Interest In $8B US Chemical Assets Sale

  • Alibaba Plunges After $10.2B Share Placement To Fund AI Push

  • Shein Seeks Up To $1.8B In Long-Awaited Hong Kong IPO

  • Nvidia Customers Notified About AI-Related Price Hikes Above 15%

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

  • EUR/USD: 1.1450 (EU2.21b), 1.1500 (EU1.11b), 1.1400 (EU977.9m)

  • USD/JPY: 140.00 ($686m), 153.00 ($500m), 157.85 ($432m)

  • AUD/USD: 0.7120 (AUD427.4m), 0.7100 (AUD425.2m), 0.6900 (AUD379.8m)

  • USD/CNY: 6.7590 ($600m), 6.7600 ($310m), 6.6900 ($300m)

  • USD/BRL: 5.4000 ($648.9m), 5.2500 ($611.4m), 5.7000 ($398.4m)

  • USD/MXN: 16.94 ($385m), 18.10 ($307.3m)

CFTC Positions as of 21/7/26

  • Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 5,978 contracts to 267,509

  • Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 10,361 contracts to 952,422

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 33,349 contracts to 1,274,105

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 31,908 contracts to 946,961

  • Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 93,706 contracts to 927,337

  • Speculators increase CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 19,941 contracts to 346,724

  • Speculators increase CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net short position by 39,405 contracts to 219,012

  • Bitcoin net long position is 2,736 contracts

  • Swiss franc posts net short position of -27,278 contracts

  • British pound net short position is -54,573 contracts

  • Euro net short position is -59,088 contracts

  • Japanese yen net short position is -52,893 contracts

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 - 7620 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 7620 Target 7870

  • Below 7580 Target 7490

DXY - 99 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bearish>Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 99.20 Target 99.75

  • Below 99 Target 97.50

EURUSD - 1.16 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 1.16 Target 1.18

  • Below 1.1550 Target 1.1475

GBPUSD - 1.3550 weekly  bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 1.3550 Target 1.3690

  • Below 1.35 Target 1.3450

USDJPY - 160 weekly bull bear level 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish>Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 155 Target 160

  • Below 155 Target 152

XAUUSD - 4500 weekly bull bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 4500 Target 4725

  • Below 4450 Target 4385

BTCUSD - 74k weekly bull bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 74k Target 83k

  • Below 73.8k Target 70.8k

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