FTSE 100 FINISH LINE 10/4/26
FTSE 100 FINISH LINE 10/4/26
On Friday, the major UK stock indices experienced a modest uptick, setting the stage for a week of gains as investors eagerly eye crucial peace discussions between U.S. and Iranian officials scheduled for the weekend. The benchmark FTSE 100 climbed 0.18%, marking its third consecutive week of positive performance. Meanwhile, the mid-cap FTSE 250 surged by 1%, positioning itself for a second straight week of growth. Global markets appeared optimistic as traders looked forward to the results of the U.S.-Iran peace negotiations taking place in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Saturday. However, tensions remained high as the Strait of Hormuz was still closed, and clashes erupted between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, actions both the U.S. and Iran condemned as breaches of their ceasefire agreement. Earlier in the week, stocks had rallied after oil prices dipped following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, which raised hopes for a revival in shipping through the strategically vital strait. Nevertheless, oil flow from the Gulf continues to be significantly limited, keeping futures prices hovering around $100 per barrel.
In corporate news, AO World saw a remarkable gain of 6.9% after the British electronics retailer announced it expected its annual profit to hit the upper end of its forecast range, thanks to a boost in market share across all key sectors of its consumer-focused business. On the other hand, B&M's shares dropped by 3.6% following the departure of interim CFO Helen Cowing after less than five months in her role. In a more positive turn, Wizz Air's stock soared by 9.7% after a Bloomberg report indicated that Ukraine's chief negotiator with Russia had noted progress towards a potential peace agreement with Russia.
The upcoming UK March CPI report is anticipated to show an increase to around 3.5% from 3.0%. While markets are less concerned about further tightening, central banks remain cautious, needing assurance that rising energy prices won't lead to broader inflation through wages and services. This creates a tension between easing market fears and rising inflation indicators. If the energy shock subsides, markets may shift focus to weaker growth; however, if inflation spreads, current market optimism could be misplaced. The upcoming UK February GDP release is expected to show a modest 0.2% month-on-month increase, indicating some pre-conflict economic momentum. However, March PMI data suggests a slowdown in growth across the US, Eurozone, and UK, indicating potential economic challenges ahead. Market attention will likely focus on the ceasefire's stability, central bank discussions at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings, and early earnings reports from US banks that may reflect a cautious macro environment.
TECHNICAL & TRADE VIEW – FTSE100
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 10500 Target 11000
Below 10300 Target 10100
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!